Summary of current situation and forecasts for 2023

➡ On February 5, most factories in China returned fully to their regular pace of operation.

➡ There was no increased increase in infections or detection of any new coronavirus strains during the New Year’s celebrations, which only confirms that the situation is heading for the better all the time.

➡ Large fluctuations in the RMB in 2022 (the minimum rate was 6.3 and the maximum rate was 7.3, a difference of more than 15 percent) have contributed to economic instability. Fortunately, forecasts for 2023 are much more optimistic – the exchange rate is estimated to be much more stable this year.

➡ The economic situation in the United States will also have a big impact on trade in the coming year. According to the latest data, the CPI in the U.S. recently fell to 6.5% and continues to decline. Experts estimate that the rapid decline in the CPI will have an impact on the U.S. dollar index, which will contribute to the preservation of currency stability and an improvement in the global economic situation and, consequently, to regulated prices for products priced in this currency in China.

➡ The new year saw differences in the prices of individual raw materials. For example, there is an increase in the cost of titanium dioxide, which is widely used in the production of paints, varnishes, plastics, paper, ink, chemical fibers, rubber and cosmetics. The unit cost of the raw material has increased by $100/ton. As a result, we anticipate an increase in prices for products in the aforementioned group.

Despite the rise in the prices of some commodities, forecasts for this year appear optimistic. China’s post-pandemic opening can be expected to result in a significant recovery of the Chinese economy in 2023. However, it remains to be seen what impact this will have on commodity and transportation prices, as well as the global economic situation.